Forecasting, foresight, … various words which indicate different concepts, approaches and objectives, conditioned by a culture, a philosophy, a vision of the place of man specific to each society and each human community. In other words, it constitutes different ways to study the future. These ways are by the vision of the world, the ideology, the beliefs and the culture of those who carry out the study, and of those who use it within a decision-making process.

What you’ll learn

From the two examples of the most two sophisticated modes of studying the future: French and American:

• • Identification of the cultural, philosophical and ideological foundations of any conception of forecasting
  • Theories and formal approaches to forecasting and foresight that derive from these foundations
  • Types of methods that are derived from these theories
  • Specific forms of organisation that result from the use of these methods.

An intellectual approach to forecasting is characterised by its own epistemology of the predictive function of knowledge. The protocols and tools designed to carry out forecasting studies constitute methods which, by their nature, can be linked to a main intellectual approach of reference.

What you’ll learn

• • The intuitive approach based on an in-depth knowledge of the subject, from which the expert in communion with his subject, is able to draw a vision of the future
  • The analogical approach which consists of choosing a situation, a phenomenon from the past, considered to be similar to the situation, to the phenomenon under study, in order to be able to deduce its future evolution
  • The extrapolative approach which, in a black box, consists in exploiting time series
  • The explanatory approach which involves the construction of a model of the situation of the studied phenomenon

Designing a project means developing and creating an activity that meets a long-term objective. To do this, it is important to identify and manage the risks linked to changes and upheavals in the external environment, which affect the success and performance of the activity that has been imagined and designed.

What you’ll learn

• • Systems modelling
  • Identification and selection of risk factors and its treatment
  • Analysis and exploitation of trends and cycles
  • Determination and evaluation of failure phenomena and itsimpacts
  • Adjustment of the decision according to the level of risk aversion and the choice of reactive / proactive posture